Justin Doran
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Volume of Retail Trade Down Across Europe

7/12/2011

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The latest figures from EuroStat indicate that the volume of retail trade has fallen in the Eurozone by 1.1% in May 2011.  This is despite showing signs of recovery in April.  This can be observed in Figure 1.  The EU27 also suffered a drop of 1.1% in May.
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When we compare Ireland’s performance with that of the Europe in Figure 2 we can see that Ireland’s fluctuations are far more severe than our European counterparts.  While Ireland saw a drop of over 2.5% in retail sales in Dec 2010, Europe saw a fall of only about 0.2%.  When Ireland rebounded strongly in Jan 2011 with 2.1% growth, Europe only experienced 0.2% growth.  
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These extreme fluctuations, coupled with an unpredictable positive/negative trend make it hard to judge whether Ireland’s retail sales have bottomed out.  April and May of 2011 both show drops in retail sales.  Overall, this is not a positive sign for retailers, who have continued to see declining sales.
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    Justin Doran is a Lecturer in Economics, in the Department of Economics, University College Cork, Ireland.

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